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THAT is a sixty-four-thousand-dollar question as post-dissolution and run-up to the Malaysian 15th General Election (GE15), the line is getting much more complicated to predict after the nomination process was completed last week.
With a crowded field of more than 940 candidates running for the coveted 222 parliamentary seats, the multi-cornered fights across almost all seats make it even more difficult to predict the winners in this election.
To add another spanner into the equation, a total of 6.23 million new voters will be voting for the first time, of which some 1.39 million voters are from the #Undi18 cohort.
The balance of the new voters is from the automatic voter registration (AVR) process as all Malaysian citizens, whether in Malaysia or overseas, have now been turned into voters.
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Element of surprise
Since the 2004 elections, or GE11, when Barisan Nasional swept the seats almost clean, the Malaysian political landscape has been in constant change as opposition parties have been gaining ground from one election after another.
In GE12, which was held in 2008, the momentum was building up with the wind of change slowly blowing in the opposition’s favour. In GE12, the rallying cry for the opposition was to deny the government a two-thirds majority.,
The result of the March 8 election was a surprise, as not only the opposition, led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, denied the Barisan a two-thirds majority, they managed to secure five states as well led by Penang, Kelantan, Perak, Selangor and Kedah.
The opposition secured 82 parliamentary in GE12 out of the 222 seats contested, a four-fold jump from mere 20 seats held before.
For Barisan, the number of seats held fell from 198 seats to 140 seats while in terms of the percentage of votes secured, Barisan’s share plummeted to just 51.4% from 63.9% in 2004 polls.
For the main opposition front, they secured 47.4% of popular votes from just 34% of popular votes in GE11.
The loss in GE12 for the BN was painful for markets as the FBM KLCI upon resumption of trading plunged more than 10% as investors view uncertainty with respect to Malaysia’s political stability.
As can be seen from the table, from the date of the dissolution of Parliament to the first day of trading post-election day, the market dropped 17.6%.
Reason – not only the results were below expectations, the loss of five key states too was punishing for the ruling coalition.
GE13 and GE14
After GE12, with the change in the Barisan’s leadership, the momentum was back in Barisan’s favour, although the opposition believed it could still make further inroads into Barisan’s core support base.,